THE FORCES OF SECESSION AND STATE COLLAPSE: SUDAN, SOUTH SUDAN, AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WAR: 1955–2026

Abstract

This paper analyses Sudan's continuous wars from 1955 to 2026 through a combined International Law and International Relations framework. It argues that secession and state collapse stem from the failure of the post-colonial state to accommodate diversity within a centralised Islamo-Arabist project, amplified by political marketplace dynamics, resource curse, and regional proxy competition. International Relations theories—realism, constructivism, new wars, rentier state, and regional security complex—explain the persistence of conflict and the transformation of paramilitary actors like the Rapid Support Forces, which commercialised gold and violence. International law determines legality: South Sudan's 2011 secession was lawful as consensual secession under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005), satisfying Montevideo Convention criteria and the Quebec Reference test, while Darfur claims and the RSF's 2025 Government of Peace and Unity in Nyala fail Montevideo and violate the prohibition on acquisition of territory by force under UN Charter Article 2(4) and the duty of non-recognition under ILC Article 41. The paper examines ICC jurisdiction under UNSC Resolution 1593, starvation as a war crime under Rome Statute Article 8(2)(e)(xix), and state responsibility for arms flows documented in UN Panel reports S/2024/65.