FROM DEVELOPMENT PLANS TO ROLLING PLANS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of economic development planning in Nigeria from the colonial period to the late twentieth century, with particular emphasis on the transition from fixed-term national development plans to rolling plans under the Structural Adjustment Programme. Employing a historical methodology, the study draws on archival documents, official development plan records, and secondary literature to provide a comparative analysis of the objectives, structures, and outcomes of the two planning frameworks. The findings indicate that fixed-term plans (1962–1985) provided a long-term economic vision but were undermined by political instability, fluctuations in oil revenue, and weak institutional capacity. In contrast, rolling plans (1986–1999) introduced greater flexibility and responsiveness, enabling the annual recalibration of priorities in response to macroeconomic shocks. Nevertheless, the adoption of rolling plans was accompanied by significant social costs, including rising poverty and inequality, thereby highlighting the challenges of balancing market-oriented policies with social development objectives. The study concludes that Nigeria’s planning history reflects a broader ideological shift from state-led to market-oriented development, emphasizing the critical interplay among institutional capacity, fiscal discipline, and adaptive policy frameworks.