MULTIDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES

Abstract

This study employs an integrative geospatial assessment to examine the spatial and temporal implications of rural depopulation on agricultural productivity in Igunshin, Ondo West Local Government Area, Ondo State, Nigeria. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) transitions were classified and analysed using multi-temporal Landsat datasets spanning 2000–2025, with advanced remote sensing and GIS techniques applied in ENVI 5.6 and ArcGIS Pro 3.0 environments. Supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm, supported by accuracy assessments exceeding 85%, enabled precise delineation of agricultural land, built-up areas, vegetation, and open spaces. The results reveal a significant decline in agricultural land, which decreased from 14.76 km² (13.01%) in 2000 to 7.27 km² (6.41%) in 2025, while vegetative cover increased from 52.78% to 79.80%. Built-up areas expanded modestly up to 2010 but declined sharply thereafter, indicating the spatial manifestation of rural depopulation. These dynamics highlight an inverse relationship between population decline and agricultural productivity, lending empirical support to the migration–productivity theoretical framework. The findings further indicate that sustained outmigration, an ageing rural population, and inadequate infrastructure development contribute to agrarian contraction and ecological reversion. The study concludes that agricultural productivity will continue to decline unless strategic rural revitalisation measures—such as youth agripreneurship promotion, infrastructure investment, and integrated land-use planning—are implemented. Overall, the study contributes to the broader discourse on rural spatial transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa by demonstrating the effectiveness of geospatial analytics in explaining the demographic determinants of agricultural sustainability.