INTERROGATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NIGERIAN SECURITY FORCES’ COUNTER-INSURGENCY STRATEGIES AGAINST BOKO HARAM IN NORTHEAST NIGERIA

Abstract

The emergence of Boko Haram insurgents in Northeast Nigeria has led to the wanton loss of lives, livelihoods, and property on a devastating scale. This has significantly altered the dynamics of security operations in the country. In response, the Nigerian government has, since 2011, adopted various counter-insurgency strategies to combat Boko Haram terrorism (BHT) in the region. Since 2015, Boko Haram's activities appear to have declined, largely due to the implementation of these strategies by Nigerian security forces. To investigate this development, research objectives and questions were formulated to guide the study. These objectives were addressed using descriptive statistics, while inferential statistics were employed to gain deeper insights. A sample of 100 participants was selected, comprising serving and retired military personnel from the Nigerian Army, Navy, and Air Force. Additional participants included personnel from the Department of State Services (DSS), the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) in Northeast Nigeria, staff of the Ministry of Defence and the Defence Intelligence Agency, as well as members of the National Assembly Committees on the Army and Defence. Others included academics, staff of the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), and representatives of security-based non-governmental organizations. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources, including literature, questionnaires, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs). The questionnaire data were analyzed using frequency counts, percentages, and mean scores to answer the research questions. Data from the KIIs were analyzed using thematic analysis, while Chi-square tests were conducted to test the hypotheses at the 0.05 significance level. The results of the Chi-square analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between the degradation of Boko Haram activities in the area of operations and the type of counter-insurgency strategy employed. The study found that the effectiveness of degrading Boko Haram operations was significantly influenced by the specific strategies used. It is recommended that the Federal Government and the military adopt an integrated approach that combines kinetic (military force) and non-kinetic (non-combat) strategies in counter-insurgency operations. The study concludes that the combined use of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies should be sustained by Nigerian security forces to ensure long-term success in the fight against insurgency.