An Investigation of the Asymmetrical Relationship between Population Growth and Food Importation in Nigeria

Abstract

The paper studied the impact of population growth on importation of consumables (food) in Nigeria using time series data for the period of 1982 to 2022. Vector error correction model (VECM), the Granger causality test and the impulse response functions (IRFs) analytical techniques was employed. Malthusian population theory and the dependency theory were adopted as the theoretical framework. The unit root test revealed that the variables are integrated of order one which shows that the variables of interest are stationary at first difference. Johansen co-integration reveals existence of long run relationship among the variable of interest. The results revealed that population growth has a negative but significant effect on consumable importation in Nigeria. A unidirectional relationship between population growth and food importation. Short run and long run negative effect of population shock on food importation over the period studied. From the results, Government is advised to increase budget allocation on Agriculture to boost food output through mechanization of farming process. Establishment of agricultural institute to help educate and equip the population with modern knowledge on food and livestock production. Stabilization of the exchange rate level by the government, to control import and export levels, as well as prices of imported foods. Government intensified efforts to reduce insurgency especially in the North and resolving of herders and farmers conflicts to help encourage people involved and interested in undertaking farming and livestock production in Nigeria.