Female Education, Fertility, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This study investigated the interrelationship between female education, fertility, and economic growth in Nigeria. It employed annual time series data from 1980 to 2023 from the World Development Indicator (WDI) and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) econometric technique to explore both the short-run and long-run effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The underpinning theories were the Human Capital Theory and the Demographic Transition Theory, which posit that female education influences fertility decisions and labour market participation, which consequently shapes economic performance. Higher levels of female education are often associated with lower fertility rates due to delayed childbearing, improved access to information, and enhanced economic opportunities. At the same time, reduced fertility can ease dependency burdens and allow greater female participation in productive activities, thereby promoting economic growth. The explained variable is the real GDP growth, while the explanatory variables are the total fertility rate, female education, female labour force participation rate, inflation, and population growth. Existing empirical studies on Nigeria and similar developing economies have largely treated these variables in isolation or focused on pair- wise relationships, with limited attention to their joint dynamics and adjustment processes over time. The empirical result showed that female education has a positive, although lagged, effect on economic growth. This suggests that the benefits of education on economic growth are not instantaneous, but reflect over time. Conversely, fertility exhibits an inverse relationship with economic growth, also in the lagged form. The female labour force participation reveals a direct relationship with economic growth, as 1% increase in the female labour force participation rate leads to a 4% increase in economic growth.  However, inflation and population effects on economic growth are negative. The ECM of 65 indicates a high speed of adjustment to equilibrium following short-run shocks. The study therefore concluded that female education and fertility are two major factors that determine the economic performance of Nigeria. It then suggests a policy measure that improves access to female education, encourages fertility transition, and promotes macroeconomic stability.